Which countries are the most likely to have a recession in 2018? | The Globe and Mail
Canada is in a recession.
That’s the headline in the latest Reuters poll.
The poll found that Canada’s economy is down 8.2 per cent from the previous year, and its unemployment rate is at 11.5 per cent.
But the biggest worry for economists is a looming recession, as well as a weakening of the Canadian dollar.
The world’s third-largest economy, which is the fourth-largest by population and the fifth-largest overall, has been battered by the global downturn and has been grappling with a weakening currency.
In the U.S., the economy is the third-biggest in the world, with 1.9 million jobs lost in September.
In China, the country’s third largest economy, its economy contracted 0.8 per cent in September, while in Germany, it contracted 0% in September and was still growing in the third quarter of this year.
And in France, the economy contracted 4.1 per cent last month, and is now down 1.2% from a year ago.
Canada has been hit hard by the Great Recession.
It has been the worst performer among the countries surveyed, and it’s still recovering from the worst recession in modern Canadian history.
As a result, it has seen its unemployment rates skyrocket over the last two decades, with the average rate of joblessness for adults now exceeding 20 per cent, according to Statistics Canada.
That rate has been inching higher since 2008.
“A lot of the blame for the recession has been put on the Canadian economy, so we need to be mindful of that,” said economist and former governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, in an interview with CBC News on Thursday.
Carney said the Bank is currently monitoring the situation, but he expects a downturn.
“I think there’s a lot of uncertainty, a lot that can happen in a very short period of time,” he said.
Canada’s housing market is also on the decline.
The Canadian Real Estate Association says it expects home prices in Canada to fall for the third straight month, falling 2.5% in November.
The downturn in the Canadian housing market, coupled with a weak Canadian dollar, has forced many Canadians to move to the U, and they’re spending more than ever in the U to stay afloat.
Many Canadians also have taken out mortgages, which can be a risky investment.
The Bank of Nova Scotia said this week it expects Canadians to spend more than $3.6 trillion on home purchases in 2018, an increase of nearly $400 billion since the recession started in 2008.
While the unemployment rate remains high, it is down to a rate of 9.7 per cent — slightly below the peak of 11.7 in October 2009, but far above the previous peak of 8.3 in February 2009.
“The trend is that people are getting a little bit more cautious about mortgages, and that has a lot to do with the weaker currency,” said Mark Currie, chief economist at TD Securities.
But Currie also said Canadians are spending more on housing than ever before. “
We have a lot more risk exposure to property.”
But Currie also said Canadians are spending more on housing than ever before.
In 2017, Canadians spent $7,000 more per person than they did in 2016, with total spending up 14 per cent compared to 2016.
“You have this really strong housing market right now,” said Currie.
“But it’s been very tight for some time.
There’s been lots of foreclosures.
A slowdown in China is another worry for Canada’s economic growth. “
It’s a very tight market right about now.”
A slowdown in China is another worry for Canada’s economic growth.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the world’s second-largest economic power, China’s economy contracted 8.4 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018.
That was the worst quarter in China’s history.
China’s growth in the last three years has been among the worst in the G7, which includes the United States and Germany.
In 2019, China is expected to have less than 3 per cent of its GDP in GDP coming from the economy, down from the 9.3 per cent forecast a year earlier.
Currie predicts the U-shaped growth of China will continue until 2020, when it will begin to expand faster.
“China is not slowing down, but it is starting to slow down,” said Cameron Howe, chief investment officer at Capital Economics.
“They are starting to see some of the effects of the global slowdown.”
The Bank’s Carney said China has also been experiencing an economic slowdown.
“Over the last few years, China has been a driver of a number of events in the global economy, and I think it’s clear that those events have had an impact on the global macroeconomy,” Carney said.
“In the first half of 2018, the global rate of GDP growth was negative for the first time since the end